FP1 Monza: Ferrari Dominates, but Heat Hazard Looms as Strategic Unknown

From the perspective of someone who has followed F1 for 41 years, I always refrain from drawing conclusions after the first practice session. But at Monza, Friday's FP1 left some notable signals, especially when combined with the FIA's extreme heat warning.

Hook: Leclerc leads the pack When Charles Leclerc set a 1:26.153 on the timing board, I immediately looked at the gap to his new teammate Lewis Hamilton. Just under two-tenths (approx 0.197s). A signal that both Ferrari SF-25s are working well on the high-speed track. But the real question isn't about the fastest lap. It's about how teams will manage tires and temperatures when the race runs under the European heatwave.

Context: Monza and the heatwave Monza is the lowest-downforce track on the calendar, where top speed and engine performance are decisive. The FIA issued a heat hazard warning on Thursday due to the heatwave affecting northern Italy. FP2 is scheduled for 3 PM BST on Friday, when track temperatures could reach 50°C. This affects not only tire grip but also engine and brake cooling. In this context, FP1 standings are only a reference.

Core: Tactical and data analysis Leclerc led with 1:26.153. Hamilton was only 0.197s behind in second. George Russell (Mercedes) was third, Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls) surprisingly fourth, and Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) – the championship leader – only fifth, 0.636s off Leclerc.

At first glance, Ferrari looks strong. But consider the context: FP1 is often used for mixed programs – aero tests, tire wear checks, and sometimes different fuel loads. The tight gap between Leclerc and Hamilton suggests both may be on similar low-fuel runs, simulating qualifying. However, this doesn't guarantee race pace.

Notably, Lawson (Racing Bulls) in fourth. For a customer team, this is a standout result, suggesting the RB's low-downforce package may be effective. But it could also be a clean low-fuel lap. I'll wait for FP2 data to confirm.

On the Mercedes side, Russell was 0.4s faster than Antonelli. If Antonelli is truly a title contender, he needs significant improvement. However, I suspect Antonelli may have been running a different test program, such as tire degradation evaluation on the hot track.

Contrarian: Heat – the blind spot of FP1 data Every tracking number from FP1 can be distorted if temperature is not considered. The FIA heat warning is no small matter. When the track is hot, soft tires (C5) can degrade quickly, forcing teams to open cooling louvers, increasing drag and reducing top speed – a disaster at Monza.

This is what numbers don't say: In FP1, we see fast lap times. But we don't see tire temperatures after three consecutive laps, or the degree of cooling louver opening. A car that looks fast in one lap can become a 'brick' on straights if it has to run maximum cooling.

My experience following Monza sessions shows: the team that best manages tire and engine temperatures in the heat usually wins. Ferrari has the home advantage and knows Italian weather, but Mercedes has years of experience with thermal issues.

Takeaway: The real test starts in FP2 Don't rush to bet on Leclerc for pole based on FP1 alone. The real game begins when teams run long programs in FP2 under the heat. If Ferrari can maintain a sub-two-tenths gap between its drivers throughout the race, that's a sign they've solved tire management. If not, Mercedes and even Racing Bulls could spring a surprise.

Data only tells part of the story; the rest lies in knowing how to listen. And today, I'm listening to the screech of tires on the scorching tarmac.